STOCHASTIC TYPHOON MODEL AND ITS APPLICATION TO FUTURE TYPHOON PROJECTION

Tomohiro Yasuda, Hajime Mase, Shoji Kunitomi, Nobuhito Mori, Yuta Hayashi

Abstract


This study presents a stochastic typhoon model (STM) for estimating the characteristics of typhoons in the present and future climate conditions. Differences of statistical characteristics between present and future typhoons were estimated from projections by an Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM) under a climate change scenario and are taken into account in the stochastic modelling of future typhoons as a climate change signal. From the STM results which utilize the Monte Carlo simulation, it was found that the frequency of typhoon landfall in Osaka bay area, Japan, will decrease, although the mean value of atmospheric central pressure of typhoon will not change significantly. The arrival probability of stronger typhoons will increase in the future climate scenario.

Keywords


stochastic typhoon model; Monte Carlo simulation; AGCM; frequency of landfall; central atmospheric pressure

References


Fujii T. and Y. Mitsuta. (1986). Synthesis of a Stochastic Typhoon Model and Simulation of Typhoon Winds, Annuals Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, No.29, B-1, pp.229-239 (in Japanese).

Hashimoto, N., H. Kawai, K. Matsuura, K. Kawaguchi. (2004). Development of stochastic typhoon model for performance design of coastal design. Proc. of the 29th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, 4, pp.3615-3627.

Hatada Y and M. Yamaguchi. (1996). A stochastic typhoon model and its application to the estimation of extremes of storm surge and wave height. Proc. of the 25th International Conference on Coastal Engineering, 2, pp.1389-1402.

IPCC. (2007). Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Working Group I Contribution to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge, UK; 996pp.

KAKUSHIN. (2007). Innovative Program of Climate Change Projection for the 21st Century, Japan. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/40733(147)43

Kawai, H, N. Hashimoto, K. Matsuura. (2006). Improvement of stochastic typhoon model for the purpose of simulating typhoons and storm surges under global warming. Proc. of the 30thInternational Conference on Coastal Engineering, 2, pp.1838-1850.

Kawai, H., N. Hashimoto, K. Matsuura. (2008). Estimation of extreme storm water level in Japanese Bays by using stochastic typhoon model and tide observation data. Proc of the 18th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, 3, pp.497-504.

Kitoh, A., T. Ose, K. Kurihara, S. Kusunoki, M. Sugi, KAKUSHIN Team-3 Modeling Group. (2009). Projection of changes in future weather extremes using super-high-resolution global and regional atmospheric models in the KAKUSHIN Program: Results of preliminary experiments. Hydrological Research Letters, 3, pp.49-53. doi:10.3178/hrl.3.49.http://dx.doi.org/10.3178/hrl.3.49

Mori, N., T. Yasuda, H. Mase, T. Tom and Y. Oku (2010). Projection of extreme wave climate change under the global warming, Hydrological Research Letters, Vol.4, pp.15-19. doi:10.3178/hrl.4.15http://dx.doi.org/10.3178/hrl.4.15

Murakami, H. and M. Sugi. (2010). Effect of Model Resolution on Tropical Cyclone Climate Projections. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 6, pp.73-76. doi:10.2151/sola.2010-019.http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/sola.2010-019

Myers, V.A. (1954). Characteristics of United States Hurricanes Pertinent to Levee Design for Lake Okeechobee, Florida. Hydro-Meteorological Report of U.S Weather Bureau, 32, pp.1-106.

Oouchi, K, J. Yoshimura, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, S. Kusunoki, A. Noda. (2006). Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a Global-Warming Climate as Simulated in a 20km-Mesh Global Atmospheric Model: Frequency and Wind Intensity Analyses. Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, 84(2), pp.259-276. doi:10.2151/jmsj.84.259.http://dx.doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.84.259

Sugi, M, H. Murakami, J. Yoshimura. (2009). A Reduction in Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency due to Global Warming. Scientific Online Letters on the Atmosphere, 5, pp.164-167. doi:10.2151/sola. 2009-042.

Yasuda, T., H. Mase, N. Mori (2010). Projection of future typhoon landing on Japan based on a stochastic typhoon model utilizing AGCM projections, Hydrological Research Letters, 4, pp.65-69, doi:10.3178/HRL.4.65.http://dx.doi.org/10.3178/hrl.4.65


Full Text: PDF

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.