RAPID PROBABILISTIC HURRICANE SURGE AND DAMAGE FORECASTING USING SURGE RESPONSE FUNCTIONS

Jennifer Linnea Irish, Celso Ferreira, Francisco Olivera, Ikpoto Udoh, Youn Kyung Song, Kunag-An Chang

Abstract


In this paper, a joint probability approach is used with scaling laws for hurricane surge to rapidly develop probabilistic based hurricane surge and damage forecasts. The method presented is demonstrated along the Texas, USA coastline for Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in September of 2008. The probabilistic approach presented here is both accurate and fast, with a single surge and percent damage forecast taking less than one minute while representing more than 170,000 distinct hurricane possibilities.

Keywords


hurricane surge; surge forecasting; flooding damages

References


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