Jennifer Linnea Irish, Celso Ferreira, Francisco Olivera, Ikpoto Udoh, Youn Kyung Song, Kunag-An Chang


In this paper, a joint probability approach is used with scaling laws for hurricane surge to rapidly develop probabilistic based hurricane surge and damage forecasts. The method presented is demonstrated along the Texas, USA coastline for Hurricane Ike, which made landfall in September of 2008. The probabilistic approach presented here is both accurate and fast, with a single surge and percent damage forecast taking less than one minute while representing more than 170,000 distinct hurricane possibilities.


hurricane surge; surge forecasting; flooding damages


Berg, R. 2009. Tropical cyclone report Hurricane Ike (AL092008) 1-14 September 2008, National Hurricane Center, 55 pp.

Federal Emergency Management Agency. 2009. HAZUS FEMA's Methodology for Estimating Potential Losses from Disasters, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.oceaneng.2010.04.002

Irish, J.L., Resio, D.T., and Cialone, M.C. 2009. A surge response function approach to coastal hazard assessment. Part 2: Quantification of spatial attributes of response functions, Natural Hazards, 51(1), 183-205.http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11069-009-9381-4

Irish, J.L., Song, Y.K., and Chang, K.-A. In review. Probabilistic hurricane surge forecasting using parameterized surge response functions, Geophysical Research Letters.

Luettich, R.A., and Westerink, J.J. 2004. Formulation and numerical implementation of the 2D/3D ADCIRC finite element model version 44.XX, http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2008.06.008

National Hurricane Center. 2009. NHC archive of hurricane seasons, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/pastall.shtml.

Song, Y.K. 2009. Storm surge assessment at Texas coastal bridges with improved surge response functions, Master Thesis, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, 110 pp.

Westerink, J.J., Luettich, R.A., Feyen, J.C., Atkinson, J.H., Dawson, C., Powell, M.D., Dunion, J.P., Roberts, H.J., and Pourtaheri, H. 2008. A basin to channel scale unstructured grid hurricane storm surge model as implemented for Southern Louisiana, Monthly Weather Review, 136, 833-865. http://dx.doi.org/10.1175/2007MWR1946.1

Full Text: PDF

Creative Commons License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.